Analysis and prediction of China's wood pulp price

2022-10-18
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Analysis and forecast of China's wood pulp price trend in 2018

release date: Source: China industry information editor: Yu Jia browsing times: 2739 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: the domestic wood pulp price is currently at the highest level since 2010. In 2010, the domestic wood pulp price peaked at 7383.33 yuan/ton. The economic growth picked up after the subprime mortgage crisis. The 4trillion yuan investment in the Chinese market led to the commissioning of a large number of paper-making capacity, pushing up the global demand for wood pulp. The 2010 Chile earthquake affected the supply of wood pulp producing countries to a certain extent, and the price of wood pulp rose due to the global supply and demand pattern

[China Packaging News] domestic wood pulp prices are currently at the highest level since 2010. In 2010, the domestic wood pulp price peaked at 7383.33 yuan/ton. The economic growth picked up after the subprime mortgage crisis. The 4trillion yuan investment in the Chinese market led to the commissioning of a large number of paper-making capacity, pushing up the global demand for wood pulp. The 2010 Chile earthquake affected the supply of wood pulp producing countries to a certain extent, and the price of wood pulp rose due to the global supply and demand pattern. With the paper industry entering a downturn, the price of wood pulp has been operating below 5000 yuan/ton for a long time. Since August 2017, driven by the unexpected decline in domestic inventory, the tightening of environmental protection supervision and the rise in the price of waste paper and other raw materials, the price of wood pulp has increased rapidly, reaching a maximum of 6817.50 yuan/ton. After the downstream demand weakened, the price of wood pulp fell back

the price of domestic wood pulp is at the high level since 2010

data source: public information collation

the price of wood pulp does not have the basis of continuous rise. Considering the upward movement of the price center of waste paper, we believe that the tax price center of domestic wood pulp in 2018 is yuan/ton. In terms of supply, according to the incomplete statistics of China pulp and paper, the world's major wood pulp manufacturing enterprises gradually put into production in, and the total production capacity of the projects is close to 8million tons. Large factories are more willing to put into production in line with the boom of the paper industry, and the supply side expansion trend is obvious

the world's wood pulp production capacity has increased steadily (10000 tons)

data source: public data collection

the global actual annual wood pulp output and inventory days have limited fluctuations. Since 2000, the global output of wood pulp has stabilized at around 170 million tons, the inventories of various types of wood pulp have remained stable, and the new demand and new production have basically matched. The centralized release of new production capacity may cause an imbalance between supply and demand. We believe that the domestic wood pulp price in 2018 does not have a basis for continuous rise, and the upper limit of the price operation center is near the high point of this round of price rise

the number of days in stock of various types of wood pulp remained basically stable

data source: public information collation

in terms of demand, the rebound in global economic growth has a driving effect on wood pulp consumption. From the perspective of historical data, the actual impact is limited. Global economic growth has a certain driving effect on the growth rate of wood pulp production. According to the historical data of the growth rate of global wood pulp production and global GDP from 1981 to 2016, through linear regression, if the GDP growth rate increases by 1%, it can bring an average growth rate of 1.816% of wood pulp production, that is, it is estimated that the global GDP growth rate in 2017/2018/2019 can reach 3.6%/3.7%/3.6%. Combined with the above linear regression equation, It is estimated that if the world economy increases by 0.1 percentage points in 2018, the growth rate of wood pulp consumption is expected to increase by 0.1816 percentage points. The emergence of degradable materials overturned this impression, corresponding to about 312200 tons of wood pulp consumption in 2016

in terms of substitutability, increasing the proportion of wood pulp in the main paper products can improve the paper quality. If the price of waste paper continues to rise due to import restrictions, it is expected to form an incremental demand for wood pulp. The utilization rate of waste paper in China is high, and the endowment of natural resources such as wood is insufficient. A large number of wood pulp imports do not have the space to realize large-scale substitution. Combined with the price of waste paper, the proposed method of expanding 3D printing to carbon neutral materials has opened up a new direction hub in the field of sustainable development. It is estimated that the lower limit of domestic wood pulp tax price is about 5500 yuan/ton. The utilization level of waste paper in China has been steadily improved, and the utilization rate of waste paper is leading in the world. Since 2003, the consumption and utilization rate of waste paper in China have increased steadily. Consumption increased from 24million tons in 2003 to 77.76 million tons in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.29%; The utilization rate of waste paper increased from 55.8% in 2003 to 72.6% in 2015, an increase of 16.8pct. The utilization rate of paper produced by China's waste gold medical plant in China is at the world's leading level, second only to 81% in South Korea and 73% in Germany, ranking third among the world's major paper-making countries

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